Do Off-Amazon Sellers Want Faster Shipping Speeds?
Multi-Year Roadmap • Multi-method program • Strategy decision
Executive summary: Amazon leadership faced a high-stakes strategic decision: whether to invest heavily in same-day and sub-same-day shipping for off-Amazon fulfillment (MCF). Despite pressure to mirror Amazon.com speed leadership, early signals suggested limited merchant demand. I led a multi-method research program that resolved a long-standing internal debate, redirected a $1B+ roadmap, and reframed how leadership evaluated “speed” as a value proposition for SMB DTC merchants.
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Executive Summary
Amazon leadership faced a high-stakes strategic decision: whether to invest heavily in same-day and sub-same-day shipping capabilities for off-Amazon fulfillment (Multi-Channel Fulfillment, MCF). Despite internal pressure to mirror Amazon.com’s speed leadership, early signals suggested limited merchant demand. This program resolved a director/principal-level disagreement, redirected a $1B+ roadmap, and reframed how leadership evaluated “speed” as a value proposition for SMB DTC merchants.
Outcome: Prevented misaligned investment in faster shipping speeds for 2026 planning and redirected the roadmap toward configurable, merchant-centric fulfillment capabilities now embedded in the 2026–2028+ roadmap.
The Business Question
In late 2025, the L8 Product Director for MCF requested research to inform 2026–2028 planning: Should Amazon invest in developing same-day or sub-same-day shipping for off-Amazon sellers?
Context
- MCF launched 3-Business-Day Standard (3BDS) in September 2024.
- A prior pilot (Oct 2023) showed promise, generating 2.7M incremental unit commitments.
- Broad rollout produced mixed adoption and weak sustained demand.
- 7,000+ merchant feedback signals showed no organic demand for faster-than-3-day speeds.
- Product leadership argued speed parity with Amazon.com was strategically necessary; IC product leaders believed adoption would be minimal.
My Role
Senior UXR - end-to-end research owner
- Resolved a director- and principal-level disagreement blocking roadmap decisions.
- Translated ambiguous customer sentiment into an unambiguous strategic recommendation.
- Delivered leadership-ready guidance under tight planning timelines.
- Owned problem framing, success criteria, research design, synthesis, storytelling, and executive readouts.
- Drove cross-org alignment (Product, Ops, AFN, SCOT, NATS).
Research Approach
I combined existing internal signals with focused qualitative deep dive to understand not just what merchants were doing, but why. The goal was decision-grade clarity over cloudy discovery theme generation.
Existing data analyzed
- 7,000+ merchant feedback echoes (AI-assisted thematic analysis)
- 3BDS pilot results (Oct 2023)
- 3BDS broad rollout performance (Sept 2024)
Primary research
- 11 in-depth interviews (90 minutes each)
- SMB DTC merchants ($1M–$50M ARR)
- ~1,000+ MCF orders/month
- Roles: Heads of Ops, Logistics, Supply Chain
- 5–15 years fulfillment experience across B2C, B2B, and marketplaces
Topics explored
- Decision-making process for existing shipping speeds
- Perceived customer expectations by shipping speed
- Willingness to pay for 1-day / same-day delivery
- Inventory placement and operational complexity
- Tradeoffs vs. smaller, more flexible 3PLs
Key Insights
Five findings consistently emerged across data sources and directly challenged internal assumptions:
- Demand for faster-than-3-day shipping was limited. Merchants reported minimal customer pressure for same-day or sub-same-day delivery. Existing 2–3 day options already met expectations. Speed beyond 3 days was “nice to have,” not table stakes.
- Cost was the primary constraint. Merchants could not justify incremental fulfillment costs, especially under macroeconomic pressure, even when faster shipping sounded appealing in theory.
- ROI was unproven. Merchants lacked credible evidence that faster shipping increased conversion, reduced cart abandonment, or improved retention. Without ROI clarity, speed investments stalled.
- Flexibility mattered more than speed. Merchants consistently prioritized custom packaging/branding, bundling and kitting, order edits, and routing flexibility. MCF was perceived as fast but rigid relative to smaller 3PLs.
- Competitive pressure for faster speeds was decreasing. China-based marketplaces (e.g., Temu/Shein) were normalizing slower delivery windows, reducing urgency to compete purely on speed.
Impact on Strategy
This research changed the roadmap. Rather than accelerating faster standard shipping, leadership pivoted toward configurable fulfillment as the core differentiator.
Strategic shift
From: “Faster is always better.”
To: “Merchants want control across speed, cost, and operations.”
Resulting roadmap framework
- Crawl (2025–2026): MCF-enabled inventory placement supporting multiple speed tiers
- Walk (2026–2027): Configurable fulfillment models balancing speed, cost, and complexity
- Run (2027+): Gradual acceleration of shopper expectations once value is proven
Organizational impact
- Informed July 2025 MCF Speed Strategy
- Embedded into 2026 OP1 planning
- Influenced roadmap decisions through 2028+
- Created alignment across MCF, AFN, SCOT, and NATS
- Most importantly: prevented costly misinvestment in capabilities merchants were not ready to adopt
Why I Chose This Project
- I resolve ambiguous, high-stakes debates with evidence.
- I translate customer sentiment into roadmap-level decisions.
- I’m comfortable recommending against prevailing internal narratives.
- My outcome is the business impact, not the research deliverable.